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Odds increase for development of disturbance in Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, NHC says: Will it affect Florida?

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Updated  September 19, 2024 6:59am EDT
Hurricanes
FOX 35 Orlando

NHC watching 3 areas for potential development

The National Hurricane Center is keeping a close eye on three tropical systems including an area of low pressure that could form in the Gulf of Mexico.

The odds of a tropical disturbance developing in the northwestern Caribbean Sea and southeastern Gulf of Mexico have increased, according to the National Hurricane Center’s (NHC) Thursday advisory.

As of 2 a.m., the NHC said the system could become an area of low pressure by this weekend or early next week over the western and northwestern Caribbean Sea. Gradual development is possible, and a tropical depression could form as the system moves over the northwestern Caribbean Sea into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico during the middle of next week, officials said. 

The system has a medium chance – 40% – of developing over the next seven days.

Could the remnants of Tropical Storm Gordon re-develop?

The NHC continues to watch the remnants of former Tropical Storm Gordon, which could re-form into a tropical depression or storm in the coming days. However, forecasters note that "environmental conditions appear only marginally conducive for additional development."

This disturbance may interact with another area of low pressure located to its west in the cental and western subtropical Atlantic as it moves northward at 5 to 10 mph over the next couple of days. That system has a low – 20%- chance of development over the next seven days, while the remnants of Gordon hold a 40% chance for formation. 

Will the tropical disturbances impact Florida?

It is still too early to determine whether the disturbances will affect Florida.

"Things are still much more uncertain," FOX 35 Storm Team Meteorologist Jessica Dobson said. "We could see a tropical storm form, and it could make its way into the Gulf of Mexico, where conditions are pretty ripe for any sort of further development. But as far as direct impacts to Florida or really anywhere across the Gulf Coast, it is still just too, too early to get into any specific details."

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