Cold front, tropical system could bring heavy rain to Florida next week

Stream FOX 35 News

ORLANDO, Fla. - A cold front is expected to drop from the north and stall over the Florida peninsula, potentially interacting with several low-pressure systems forming in the Gulf of Mexico.

The FOX 35 Storm Team is closely monitoring the situation as some models suggest the system could develop into a tropical depression. However, others indicate the possibility of a tropical storm, or even a Category 1 hurricane, with a low (30%) chance of formation. Regardless, Florida can expect a lot of rain.

Current forecasts vary, with some models predicting heavy rainfall across Florida, especially early next week. Tuesday is expected to see the highest chance of rain, with gusty winds possible. The exact placement of the storm remains uncertain, but areas from Daytona Beach to the Florida Keys could be affected.

The system is fueled by three tropical waves—one in the Pacific, one in the Bay of Campeche, and another heading toward the Gulf. Regardless of whether it becomes a named storm, significant rainfall is likely.

The European model suggests as much as a foot of rain, particularly in southern Florida and near Tampa.

"Some models continue to indicate the potential for a tropical storm or even more to form in the bay of Campeche, then track towards Central in South Florida between next Monday and Wednesday," said FOX 35 Storm Team Meteorologist Noah Bergren. "While that may not be the most likely outcome at this specific moment, it is definitely not a long shot and is a scenario of which we should be cognizant of."

"More likely this will become a tropical depression or non-named low-pressure system that produces a lot rain and storms," Bergren added. "Hopefully, Thursday or Friday, we will have a better idea of the chance of something tropical spinning up out of that area."

Looking ahead to Thursday and Friday, conditions will remain mostly dry with just a few isolated storms. However, next week, the situation is expected to shift as the system in the Gulf moves toward Florida, bringing with it the potential for substantial rainfall and increased humidity. Some models show totals exceeding 14 inches of rain.

"Regarding the prospects of tropical development, we just have to wait and see. Tropical development remains possible but unclear," Bergren said. "We will watch the Bay of Campeche this weekend, especially on Sunday to see if something tries to form."