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Future Milton? Chances improve for disturbance over Gulf of Mexico with impacts to Florida

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Updated  October 3, 2024 10:48pm EDT
Hurricanes
FOX 35 Orlando

Will forecast wave in Gulf become future Milton?

There’s a growing chance for tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico. If a new system forms, it will be named Milton. A tropical storm currently in the eastern Pacific Ocean is forecast to cross Mexico by Friday and emerge into the southwestern Gulf. By Sunday or Monday, it could develop into a tropical depression or storm, potentially affecting Florida next week.

ORLANDO, Fla. - There’s a growing chance for tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico. If a new system forms, it will be named Milton. 

A tropical storm currently in the eastern Pacific Ocean is forecast to cross Mexico by Friday and emerge into the southwestern Gulf. By Sunday or Monday, it could develop into a tropical depression or storm, potentially affecting Florida next week.

The exact track remains uncertain, but parts of Central Florida could see over a foot of rain mid-to-late next week, depending on the storm's intensity and path. The system is expected to move slowly, increasing the likelihood of heavy rainfall. As of late Thursday, the National Hurricane Center forecasts the system in the Gulf has a medium (40%) chance of developing quickly, but the impacts to Florida remain unchanged. 

Whether a named storm or a low-pressure system, forecasters believe it will trek to the east and eventually make its way over the Florida Peninsula by mid-week.

Tropical moisture will start to funnel into our region and rain chances will increase on Monday through Friday, with showers likely each afternoon and evening.

Potential flooding could become a concern. At this point, South Florida looks favored for the heaviest rain, amounting to over a foot cumulatively over the week.

 If a cold front draped across North Florida next week stays just a bit farther north, we'd see this axis of heaviest rain across Central Florida causing a significant flooding potential. 

Behind next week's system, it looks like we'll sample the first stretch of cooler weather since Spring, with highs in the low-to-mid 80s along with lower humidity. That's something to look forward to.

Hurricane Kirk strengthens into Cat 4 storm

Hurricane Kirk is a powerful Category 4 storm with a large eye. It is expected to approach Category 5 strength by Friday before curving away from Bermuda and the U.S. Kirk was located in the central tropical Atlantic more than 1,100 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands.

The NHC said Kirk is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph, and this general motion is expected to continue through early Friday. A turn toward the north and north-northeast at a faster forward speed is forecast over the weekend.

Tropical Storm Leslie expected to become hurricane

To the east of the quickly strengthening Hurricane Kirk, Tropical Storm Leslie is also expected to become a hurricane by the weekend. It is currently not expected to affect land, remaining over the open Atlantic Ocean for the next week.

Leslie is located nearly 600 miles to the west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands and is moving to the west.

Steady strengthening is expected, and Leslie is forecast to become the next Atlantic hurricane on Friday.

Leslie is expected to remain over the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean for the time being as it gradually turns west-northwestward over the next couple of days. No impacts to land are expected at this time.

Will Kirk and Leslie be a threat to Florida?

It doesn't look like it. According to forecasts, both storms are expected to stay in the middle of the Atlantic. 

However, swells generated by Kirk and Leslie will spread westward and are expected to reach portions of the Leeward Islands on Friday, Bermuda and the Greater Antilles on Saturday and the U.S. East Coast and the Bahamas on Sunday, the NHC said.

These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.

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