Invest 99L update: Caribbean disturbance likely to become Sara; spaghetti models, forecast

Tracking the tropics: November 13, 2024

FOX 35 Storm Team Meteorologist Brooks Garner provides the latest update on Invest 99L as it moves through the Caribbean. Expected to develop into a tropical depression, storm and potentially a hurricane over the next few days.

ORLANDO, Fla. - All eyes are on the tropics where a disturbance, named Invest 99L, is expected to become a tropical depression in the Caribbean Sea, and then likely to strengthen into a tropical storm or perhaps a hurricane as it meanders through the Gulf of Mexico, according to the National Hurricane Center. It would be known as storm Sara and some models show Florida could be in its path.

As of 7 a.m., Invest 99L has a high 90% chance of development over the next 48 hours and 7 days.

The storm is currently located in the western Caribbean and is supposed to stay in that area through early next week before moving northeast into the Gulf during the middle of next week.

If Invest 99L stays offshore, it could develop into a major hurricane, but if it moves over land, it would weaken, according to the FOX 35 Storm Team.

Is a tropical storm headed towards Florida?

Current models are showing a few different scenarios for how this potential system could impact the state.

It is too soon to predict what will form, how strong it will be and where it could be heading. However, if the storm takes form, impacts are still about 9-10 days away.

Two current scenarios for Florida impact:

Scenario 1: The storm tracks between Cancun and Cuba, potentially becoming a major hurricane over open water and impacting Florida early next week as a strong system.

Scenario 2: The storm moves over Nicaragua and Honduras before heading toward Belize, eventually reaching the Gulf and possibly heading for Florida. This track would likely result in a weaker system.

When will we know?

We'll learn more throughout the week as the National Hurricane Center continues to monitor this potential system and provide updates on its development.

When does hurricane season end?

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season ends on Nov. 30, 2024. Hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30 each year. While rare, it is possible for storms to form outside those windows.

How many tropical storms and hurricanes have we had this year?

If Sara forms, it would mark the 18th named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.

So far this year, we've had 11 hurricanes and six tropical storms with 17 named storms total.

Hurricanes: Beryl, Debby, Ernesto, Francine, Helene, Isaac, Kirk, Leslie, Milton, Oscar, Rafael.

Tropical storms: Alberto, Chris, Gordon, Joyce, Nadine, and Patty.

Three hurricanes have made landfall in Florida: Hurricane Debby, Hurricane Helene, and Hurricane Milton.

In November, only three hurricanes have made landfall on Florida in the last 173 years of records. Those were an unnamed storm of 1935, Hurricane Kate in 1985, and Hurricane Nicole in 2022.

What names are left on the list?

Sara
Tony
Valerie
William

There are 21 names given each hurricane season, which repeat every six years. Names can be retired if they were considerably destructive or deadly.

If all 21 names are used in a season, there is a supplemental list of storm names. The first five on that list are: Adria, Braylen, Caridad, Deshawn, and Emery.

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