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Tracking the Tropics: Disturbance in Gulf
An area in the Bay of Campeche in the southwestern part of the Gulf of Mexico has a 50% chance of development over the next seven days, and that's where we could likely expect a tropical depression to form either late Sunday night or the early parts of the coming week.
ORLANDO, Fla. - A new area of potential tropical development has been issued by the NHC.
A 20% chance of development is possible in the next seven days for a region off shore of the east coast of Florida and Georgia.
An area of low pressure could form around mid-week a few hundred miles north of the central Bahamas. Slow development of this low pressure will be possible as it moves further to the west and northwest. At this time, impacts to Central Florida would be on the lower end.
We are still several days out and this is a low chance of development overall, so there is a good amount of uncertainty with the specifics of the forecast. That being said, heavy rainfall would be the primary impact (if any) for areas in the path of this low pressure.
Heavy rain is hitting the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, parts of South Florida, and waters in the central Bahamas due to a trough trailing southwest from Invest 90-L, which is offshore of the U.S. southeastern coast.
This trough extends through Central Florida to the Yucatán Peninsula, carrying tropical moisture. As a result, scattered, heavy showers and strong thunderstorms are possible across the Florida Peninsula.
South Florida may see improved conditions on Saturday, but showers and thunderstorms could continue over the Atlantic waters off South Florida through the weekend.
"An area in the Bay of Campeche in the southwestern part of the Gulf of Mexico has a 50% chance of development over the next seven days, and that's where we could likely expect a tropical depression to form, either late Sunday night or the early parts of the coming week," said FOX 35 Storm Team Meteorologist Jessica Dobson.
This system is expected to move slowly westward or west-northwestward in the coming days.
While it feels like a slow start to the hurricane season, we are only about two weeks in, and should this disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico develop into a named system, it would be called Alberto.
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